An ‘ecology of risks’ describes the system of dynamic relations and interactions in which singular risk events takes place.
Risks are generated in and by political, conflictual, social and economic ecosystems. Risks are also affected by the behaviour of an organisation in a given environment; risks can also be self–generated.
Volatile environments do not follow regular, predictable pathways – their dynamics are more complex. The characteristics of complex environments are that innumerable factors will interact to produce a landscape of causal factors – known and unknown – that escapes prediction; leading to surprising dynamics of events that unfold in various speeds and directions; and with outcomes that are largely unknown. Only afterwards can hindsight and analysis bring a degree of clarity. Dramatic examples are the onset and spread of epidemics, cascading infrastructure failures, the global financial crisis, mass demonstrations and uprisings. The same may be found in less spectacular phenomena such as the spread of rumours, the popularity of a certain fashion item, a film or entertainer, a technological innovation.
Some causal factors, interactions and potential outcomes can be identified. Analysis must aim to do so. But any such analysis must recognize the limited scope of what can be known. Analysis must recognize that it is dealing with an environment that behaves as a system with its own, internal dynamic interactions. Uncertainty is a given. Surprises will occur.
One cannot prepare for all surprises; but one can prepare to be surprised. Rather than the relatively rigid planning typical of a hierarchical, bureaucratic structure, more flexible response and decision–making processes can be set–up. More often than not this implies that response and decision–making must take place there where the volatility is experienced most. In other words, contrary to a hierarchy, decision–making powers must go down and not be concentrated at the top. This requires that those directly confronted with a shock or crisis, and who are called upon to manage it, must have the trust of the organization. Their experience and competencies are key to creating adapted solutions.